OVID-19 infections are dropping precipitously all over Metro Manila. When cases started to spike in early January due to the omicron variant, the country braced itself for the worst. With an already overwhelmed medical system, scarce resources, and a population density that made it almost impossible to adequately social distance, visions of what had occurred in India with the delta variant were not far from many Filipino's minds.

And omicron was indeed significantly more infectious than delta. Almost overnight, thousands of Filipinos were testing positive for COVID-19. So this was it! Could this be how Metro Manila gets depopulated? That was the only silver lining one could think of for our otherwise dire situation.

But miraculously, almost as quickly as infections rose, they began to subside. At the height of the omicron surge in mid-January, almost forty-thousand Filipinos were testing positive for the virus each day (see chart at top). But less than a month later, by February 11, daily infections were down to just three thousand. If this trend continues, people could soon be back to their "normal" pre-pandemic lives.

So what happened? This is pure speculation on our part but here is what we think brought about this miraculous turn of events. First, a significant number of Metro Manila residents had already been vaccinated before the omicron surge.¹ Second, the omicron variant proved to be highly contagious, but significantly less virulent. Third, the high population density in Metro Manila allowed the virus to quickly spread far and wide, infecting a large number of its residents.

This meant that the virus had quickly maxed itself out as people built up their immune defenses to fight it. So this must be herd immunity! The Pinoy "herd" is now immune to COVID-19! This may explain why the virus is still raging across the globe, including most of Southeast Asia, while COVID-19 infections continue their precipitous drop in the Philippines.

But wait! This is not the time for complacency. We may be in a better place now, but we are not out of the woods yet. This virus could still have more tricks up its genomic sleeve. However, we deserve to feel good about ourselves. Incontrovertible proof Filipinos are indeed a hardy lot.

This is why we need to start taking ourselves more seriously and start playing a bigger role on the global stage. Since the Spaniards landed in Mactan 500 years ago, we Filipinos have been punching below our weight. We concerned ourselves with the "small stuff" and left weighty, consequential decisions for others to tackle. Well, the time has come to get off the sidelines and into the game.

Published 02/13/2022

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¹Department of Health (DOH) data indicate that at the start of February 2022, close to 60 million Filipinos had received their second dose of COVID-19 vaccines.